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Hotter City Is Bad News for Health

Scientists predict that by the end of the century New York will have a climate like Houston's or Miami's. Sweltering heat waves will become more frequent. Today, New York gets about 13 days a year when the temperature hits or goes above 90 degrees; projections are for 40 to 89 days a year. Nighttime temperatures will likely be higher, too. 

Already New York City, like other large cities, is warmer than surrounding areas because of the urban heat island effect. That's when asphalt and buildings absorb heat during the day and re-radiate the heat at night. As the Earth's temperature increases, New York will become that much hotter, and the heat island effect will make the searing heat feel even more oppressive. Worse, the combination of extremely hot days and unusually warm nights can be deadly, as past heat waves have shown (more on heat waves).

Heat wave of 2006 points up health risks

The U.S. heat wave of 2006 was one of the worst in recent memory — not only because of its severity, but also because of its reach and length. It lasted nearly a month and swept the entire country, with record or near-record temperatures from southern California to the East Coast. Hundreds of people died, crops withered, wildfires raged, roads buckled and electric grids struggled to provide power to sweltering customers. In New York City, tens of thousands residents lost power for over a week.

As in last summer's heat wave, longer stretches of hot weather in the city will push up electricity demand, putting more strain on the power grid and increasing the likelihood of power outages. Blackouts up the health risks for those who cannot run air conditioners or who lack elevators and live on high floors (more on heat waves). The elderly, children and others with health problems are especially vulnerable.

More hot days mean ripe conditions for ozone smog, which forms when pollutants from tailpipes and smokestacks mix with sunlight, heat and stagnant air (and thus occurs mostly during the summer months). Smog triggers asthma attacks and worsens other breathing problems. Numerous studies have shown that hospital admissions and emergency room visits for respiratory illnesses rise during periods of high smog levels (more on asthma and air pollution).

As population grows, more smoggy days?

New York City already has high rates of asthma. New York City's children are twice as likely to be hospitalized for asthma as the average American child. More unsafe, smoggy days are likely to exacerbate the problem. By the year 2100, asthma-related hospital admissions are expected to increase.

"I'm very worried about my kids' lungs," wrote Sara Tucker, a mother of two young children, who responded to our traffic survey. "I keep them in on hot days with ozone alerts." Pollution from idling cars nearby is a big concern for her even now.  Since New York City is projected to grow by about a million people by 2030, without steps to mitigate the problem, we can expect even more congestion and pollution from cars stuck in traffic — and more hot, smoggy days.

Warmer, wetter days: more chance for disease

A hotter climate could also mean higher incidence of tropical mosquito-borne diseases like malaria. Malaria and other infectious diseases carried by mosquitoes are a problem mostly in tropical countries, where there may also be inadequate public health programs to stave off infection. But high heat and humidity also increase the chances for infection.

Although scientists have not specifically looked at the potential for a rise in mosquito-borne or other insect-bearing diseases in the New York region, studies indicate that higher winter temperatures expand the range where mosquitoes can survive, increasing the likelihood of outbreaks farther north. The city's public health response will be crucial to containing outbreaks. (See Diseases Spread as Climate Changes.) 

No one wants to see New York become an overcrowded, hot, humid, smog-shrouded city with higher incidence of disease. We have the chance now to make the outcome very different. Each New Yorker can make simple changes that add up to a big difference. (See a list.)

Sources